5 trillion start emerging energy strategy plan
According to the "Securities Daily" Research Center and WIND statistics show that the main funding this month turned into lithium stocks. Specific circumstances, 29 the concept of stock trading in the lithium battery in June was a net outflow of funds, the sector in June, the total outflow of funds of approximately 1.75438 billion yuan, the average daily outflow of about 92,335,800 yuan. July with A share rebound, turn the main funds of funds injected into the plate, the plate since July total inflows of about 144,068,300 yuan, the average daily amount of about 8.4746 million yuan capital inflow, capital inflows into the week was the main increase in the plate this week, the total net inflow of funds 134,466,200 yuan, the average daily volume of 26,893,300 yuan capital inflows.
Since July, the main inflow of funds into the stock plate with 17, which, in Lingnan (15.08,0.10,0.67%) (134,884,660 yuan) integrated into the flight (20.00,0.17,0.86%) (93,350,820 yuan) , TCL Group (4.00, -0.03, -0.74%) (60,877,520 yuan), Kinwa (6.11, -0.06, -0.97%) (47,323,210 yuan), China Baoan (9.69, -0.09, -0.92% ) (46,001,760 yuan), Fluoride (46.55, -0.24, -0.51%) (30,129,990 yuan), Salt Lake group (18.89, -0.21, -1.10%) (19,813,770 yuan), Jiangsu Guotai (23.83, - 0.15, -0.63%) (18,866,250 yuan), the new chou (43.350, -0.01, -0.02%) (18,713,270 yuan) and 9 the highest inflows of the main capital stock; main outflows in July with 12 stocks , capital outflows of more than 30 million yuan of stock are four, namely: Wolong Electric (16.22, -0.15, -0.92%) (149,029,580 yuan), Foshan Lighting (13.03, -0.09, -0.69%) (106 576 970 million), Fosugufen (12.27, -0.08, -0.65%) (46,090,070 yuan), sailing shares (12.82, -0.08, -0.62%) (35,080,470 yuan).
Since July, the concept of lithium index opened 2126.18 points, to 23 points to close at 2333.86 points, gained 205.53 points, or 9.66%. The index hit on July 5, recent low, after showing unilateral rising trend, the current 60-day moving average at a certain resistance. July 1 to July 16 rose between 1.64% and an amplitude of 11.56%. This week is the rapid rise in the index showing the trend, the concept of lithium on Monday index opened slightly lower to 2136.17 points, up to Friday's close, the index was at 2333.86 points, gained 170.60 points, or 7.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index 1.79 percentage points. Since this month, has 18 lithium stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, representing the total number of lithium stocks 58.62%, which rose more than 12% of stocks are integrated into the flight, in Lingnan, shopkeeper magnetic (16.90 , 0.04,0.24%), the battery Desai (23.96, -0.39, -1.60%), Rui Technology (12.25, -0.20, -1.61%), Salt Lake Group, China Baoan, Kane shares (13.66,0.34,2.55 %), which has been integrated into the flight this month rose 74.06, behind Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share gains in the first.
From the present situation of the global lithium industry, batteries and materials to gain the absolute market share in Japan and South Korea, Japan and South Korea leading enterprise technology. Global Li-ion battery industry is mainly concentrated in Japan, China and South Korea three, along with China, South Korea Li-ion battery manufacturing technology development and promotion of the proportion of Japan's shipments of lithium batteries is gradually reduced. China Li-ion battery materials enterprises have developed rapidly, but the comprehensive technical strength, Japan, South Korea's leading enterprises are still in that position, behind China, Japan, about 2-3 years, in the big but not strong, with great room for improvement.
In recent years, the electric bicycle market showed a substantial increase due to growing environmental awareness. Electric bike with no use of fossil fuels, and the use of relatively cheap prices, solve the metropolitan area parking and traffic congestion, air and noise pollution is not the four major advantages. China currently accounts for the electric bicycle market worldwide about 95%, 90% of which use lead-acid batteries, nickel metal hydride battery is only 8%, and other lithium-ion battery is only 2% of the expected future change in lithium-ion battery-based. Due to cost reasons, the electric bike to use lead-acid battery-based pollution, are gradually transition to lithium-ion battery. Assuming a Ebike need 30 iron phosphate lithium battery, electric bicycle battery global market estimated to grow from 15.7 billion yuan in 2006 to grow to $ 32 billion in 2010.
In addition, the global electric scooter and electric wheelchair at an annual rate of 7% -10% to maintain growth, assuming an electric scooter or electric wheelchair needs 60 iron phosphate lithium battery, estimated electric scooter and electric wheelchair battery market value of 1.8 billion by 2006, growing to $ 2.5 billion in 2010.
According to the latest estimates Guohai data show that by 2010 the global power tools, electric bicycles, electric scooter and electric wheelchair battery market demand exceeded NT $ 254.8 billion (equivalent to $ 7.7 billion), is the world's existing market lithium-ion battery scale of 1 times, and continue to maintain steady growth. With lithium-ion battery applications in the rising share of the market, new market demand is expanding rapidly.
More concerned about the future of electric cars will drive the growth of more than ten times the number of lithium battery materials. The future of the world's major automobile manufacturers from the electric vehicle production and sales data show that: by 2009 the share of small lithium battery electric vehicles, electric vehicles use nickel-metal hydride batteries as a power source (10.15,0.34,3.47%); from 2010 start, car manufacturers began to substantially increase the proportion of lithium batteries as a power source for the 2010-2013 rapid growth of electric cars lithium battery, and in 2013 reached 2.26 million, an average annual compound growth rate of 124.78%, 2013 - 2018 will enter a steady development phase in 2018 to nearly 600 million, an average annual compound growth rate of 20.90%. It is estimated that a pure electric vehicle requires 40-50 kg of cathode materials and electrolyte, a single mobile phone battery consumption of about a million times. According to estimates, only required to produce 100 million electric cars lithium-ion battery materials, lithium battery materials will be the world's total demand of the times. Therefore, the promotion will drive electric cars lithium-ion battery materials show explosive growth in demand.
Li-ion battery industry related stocks more agencies believe that the management ability, technology is an industry leader, a certain scale, the future expansion of production capacity or ability to extend the industrial chain will go beyond the industry-related companies, have long-term investment value. Such as CITIC Guoan (11.43, -0.06, -0.52%), complete with a large lithium battery industry chain expansion space; Tibet Mining (28.14, -0.29, -1.02%), sitting on lithium resources, "crown jewel" be significantly improved by the project lithium carbonate production capacity, the bottleneck is expected to be resolved the company's funds, the future of lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to squeeze into the world; Shanshangufen (17.12, -0.13, -0.75%), lithium battery materials, gratifying, or to meet performance to the explosive growth of the company look at the layout of domestic and foreign resources with partners to improve the lithium chain; when the rise (58.650, -0.25, -0.42%), professional lithium battery cathode material leading enterprises, marriage lithium giant, the high end market .
According to the State Securities (12.80,0.16,1.27%) reported the latest research to provide investment advice, car battery has stabilized product design, process changes from a loosely organized, and gradually form a social division of labor, to form a reasonable chain, battery companies are also beginning to profit from a loss. However, the current-related companies are only in small batch production, production and marketing costs are high, and species, relative to a single brand, the company's main task is to enable the community to accept the product, to create first-mover advantage and brand effect. Away from mass production there is a long way to go. Support of national policy will play a crucial role in the gradual increase in government support is expected, the lithium demand will gradually increase, the corresponding increase in investment opportunities will be the future trend of this. And technical content in accordance with the level of gross margin to select, in descending order is the diaphragm, electrolyte, cathode material. Recommendations concern: Fosugufen, Fluoride, Jiangsu Guotai, when the rise of technology, CITIC Guoan; for batteries recommended by manufacturers concerned about the sailing shares.
CITIC Guoan Lithium become a turning point of the catalyst performance
Abundant reserves of lithium resources: Qinghai Guoan subsidiary has the exclusive West Salt Lake taijnar mining rights, the salt lake brine rich in lithium, potassium, boron, magnesium, lithium chloride reserves of 3.08 million tons, 26.56 million tons of potassium chloride, boron oxide 1.63 million tons, the potential economic value of 170 billion yuan. The company is actively seeking the East and one Liping taijnar Salt Lake mining rights, resources exist to expand the amount of control possible.
Lithium battery cathode material: the company-owned CITIC Guoan MGL Power Technology Co., Ltd. (accounting for 90%) occupy the lithium cobalt oxide products of the domestic market share of 40%, but also the only large-scale domestic production of lithium ion secondary battery manufacturers. Currently is the largest lithium battery cathode material of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganese oxide manufacturers. The company accelerated the new generation of lithium-ion battery materials, lithium manganese, nickel, lithium pace of industrialization and marketization, and has made great progress.
Begun to take form a complete industrial chain of lithium battery: lithium battery company is committed to building a complete industry chain and downstream, that is, ordinary lithium - battery grade lithium - battery cathode material - lithium batteries. And Japan, Toyota has agency through the Chamber of Commerce, Chengdu, open fly high-energy chemical industry signed a letter of intent. Toyota Tsusho's cooperation with Japan to advance to the lithium carbonate capacity expansion after the sale to open up overseas markets, while not excluding the two sides have further cooperation in the battery, the current forms of cooperation are not yet formalized. Expected in 2010, the joint venture to produce annual output of not less than 5,000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate.
Sealand Securities believes that the basic assumptions :1,2010-2012 lithium carbonate price 45,000 yuan, 50,000 yuan, 5.5 yuan / ton; 2,2010-2012 output of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate in the company, 1.5 million tons, 2 tons. Can be predicted, the company earnings per share for 2010-2012 were 0.36,0.50,0.75 yuan. The company has the longest battery industry chain, is expected to benefit from the full range of power and energy storage needs change; benefit of its triple play cable business, the business sector has been at the bottom of potash, salt lake resources, integrated development or a surprise, integrated point of view, the operating conditions of space and up were significantly greater than the probability of downward, agriculture and the development of new energy industry is expected to become a catalyst for inflection point occurs, for the first time to "buy" rating.
Lithium stocks of capital flows since the list this month
Leading wind power companies to benefit from industry consolidation
According to the "Securities Daily" Research Center and WIND statistics show that wind power has recently settled in the main capital signs. Specific conditions, wind power 37 stock funds in June was out, the plate in June is about 1.71946 billion yuan of total outflow of funds, the average daily outflow of about 90,498,100 yuan. A shares rebound as July, the main outflows were significantly reduced, since July, the total outflow of the plate is about 88.0493 million yuan, the average daily amount of about 5.17937 million yuan of capital outflows, and into the main capital is obviously starting this week, the net into the plate this week, the total net inflow of funds 163,807,600 yuan, the average daily volume of 9.6357 million yuan capital inflows.
Since July, the main inflow of capital stock are 24, which, TBEA (16.11,0.29,1.83%) (99.8818 million yuan), the wind technology (18.50,0.30,1.65%) (94,434,590 yuan), GD (3.57, -0.05, -1.38%) (61.306 million yuan), Silver Star Energy (23,740,350 yuan), ST Nengshan (22,346,090 yuan), Jiuding new material (11.96,0.35,3.01%) (19,636,380 yuan) , Fujian Power (8.22, -0.14, -1.67%) (18,653,030 yuan) and seven main capital inflows, stocks up; on 13 July the main stocks of capital outflows, China has a weight (5.27, -0.01, - 0.19%), Jilin Power Share (4.70, -0.06, -1.26%), Eastern Electricity, Sinoma Technology (36.70,0.41,1.13%), and four out of stock funds in excess of 30 million yuan.
Since July, the concept of wind power by the Index opened 2866.12 points, to 23 points to close at 3082.92 points, gained 210.73 points, or 7.34%. The performance index for the shock this week before finishing form, July 1 to July 16 fell between 0.86% and an amplitude of 5.68%. The main index is up this week interval, the concept of wind power on Monday index opened slightly lower, the index point along the way from the 2820.93 line, as of Friday's close, the index closed at 3082.92 points, gained 240.18 points, or 8.27%, outperforming The Shanghai Composite Index 2.17 percent. This month, there have been 21 wind power stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, the concept of wind power accounted for 56.76% shares, which rose more than 15% of the stocks have Jiuding new material (37.00%), Silver Star Energy (19.49%) Goldwind (18.97%), Huayi Electric (12.62,0.00,0.00%) (17.72%), Fujian Power (15.45%).
Global wind power wind power industry overcapacity situation will gradually ease. Data show that in 2009, the world's total installed wind power capacity reached 158 million kilowatts, an increase of 31%, higher than the average growth rate over the past decade. May 2010, domestic wind turbine production 3.7854 million kilowatts, an increase of 32.55%. 1.5MW of wind power on land has become the main model, many companies are developing or have developed more than 2MW models, future models will be the main land-based wind power for more than 2MW model conversion. Host the price of wind power has dropped to 4,500 yuan / kW or so, the competition fierce. The future growth of onshore wind power will gradually return to normal.
According to the plan, wind power installed capacity by 2020 to reach 150 million kilowatts, the next 10 years the average annual installed capacity of 1200-1300 MW. Will be built in Gansu, Xinjiang, Hebei, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu provinces and seven six million kilowatts of wind power base. New units from 2009 when 13 million kilowatts of view, additional units of wind power capacity has been reached in the average level. August 2009, the State Council executive meeting of the deployment of suppression of excess capacity in some industries and duplication, and guide the healthy development of industries, including wind power industry list. At present, China's wind power machine manufacturers about the field of seven, eighty, to the end of 2009, production capacity will reach 20 million kilowatts, has excess capacity. Internationally, the well-known wind power enterprises six or seven. In comparison, China's wind power equipment market diversification, competitiveness is also low. Wind power industry is still a sunrise industry, but rapid development in recent years, some excess capacity, industry consolidation and the next few years to absorb the excess capacity of the primary, growth has slowed. Inhibition of excess production capacity to effectively curb blind investment in the field of wind power to help revitalize and strengthen the industry. For leading companies, not only will not be affected, but also because industry consolidation and competition have been alleviated to benefit from the disorder.
CSC in the industry report that the rapid growth of wind power will soon be over, not to give too high valuation. However, the following two categories of enterprises should be concerned about future trends: high-capacity unit manufacturer. Ministry of Industry published in April 2010, the "wind power equipment manufacturing industry access standards" (draft), which refers to wind turbine manufacturers must have the production capacity of 2.5 MW and above, stand-alone, annual production of 1 million kilowatts above the necessary conditions of production and all production facilities. China's current wind power from the current situation of the machine, the machine can achieve the above criteria are not more than ten manufacturers. While the "standard" also pointed out that the establishment of enterprises in the production, the establishment of wind turbine manufacturers to comply with state industrial policies and wind power equipment manufacturing industry development planning, project investment of own funds shall not be less than 30%, and should have 5 years working experience large mechanical and electrical industry. This means that for new entrants to set up a high financial barriers and technical barriers.
Offshore wind turbine manufacturer. National Energy Board in May launched a total of 100 million kilowatts of wind power offshore bidding round. 2 offshore wind power project located in the coastal Jiangsu Province, Sheyang two, the installed capacity of 300,000 kilowatts; two "intertidal zone" project is located in Dafeng and Dongtai, of 20 million kilowatts. Offshore wind power technology is difficult, lifting and transportation costs are high, the equipment requirements are very strict, reflecting the company's comprehensive strength.
Huatai Securities believes that the scale of the emerging energy plan than the market expected wind power is unlikely. As China's wind energy resources are mainly concentrated in the "Three North", but "Three North" consumptive power of local capacity is weak, and power grid construction is lagging behind, the wind power output capability is poor, leading to the future development of wind power will be significantly constrained by power grid construction . Therefore, the scale of wind power by 2015, 90 million kilowatts, and its size of about 059 million tons of energy use of coal.
National Securities believes that, with the development of wind power, some of the key components such as blades, wind power inverter is also accelerating the localization. Times New Materials (31.01,0.09,0.29%) developed a weak wind zone for the blade has achieved mass production. Aspects of wind power inverters, Hidenobu shares (33.09, -0.06, -0.18%), Hunan Electric shares (23.75,0.35,1.50%), NARI (40.28, -0.44, -1.08%) and other companies are developing related products. Stock Recommendations focus on Hunan Electric shares (600,416).
Goldwind performance secure sufficient orders
Interim results notice: January-June 2010, the company expects net profit growth of 0-50% over the previous year. Same period last year net profit: 5.35 billion. Performance is due to changes in the normal development of the company's business, growth in unit sales remained stable. As of March 31, 2010, the company pending order total 3349.5MW, including the 750kW unit 117MW, 1.5MW unit 3225MW, 2.5MW unit 7.5MW. In addition to these orders, there have been successful but not formally signed the order total 1483.5MW.
Leading wind power equipment: The company is the largest manufacturer of wind turbine machine, one of the domestic product in 2008, new wind power installed capacity accounted for 18%. Machine manufacturing and sales company based on the expansion of wind power technology and wind farm development and sales services to the profit model. 2008 through the acquisition of Energy AG of Germany VENSYS 70% of the shares, the company became the first independent R & D design capability with full and complete independent intellectual property rights of the wind power machine manufacturers.
Close to two shareholders: the company's second-largest shareholder of China Water Investment Group Corporation has been incorporated into the root of China Three Gorges Project Development Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary, the Three Gorges China Water Investment Group Corporation held by the largest shareholder of the company 33.89% stake in wind energy company. Meanwhile, the Three Gorges Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Cheung Kong New Energy Development Co., Ltd. has purchased Xinjiang Investor Real Estate Development Company held 9.44% stake in wind energy company. Currently Three Gorges Project Corporation together hold 43.33% stake in wind energy company. On the other hand, Xinjiang SASAC, Xinjiang Changyuan Water Affairs Group Limited (acting both as people) together hold 56.67% stake in wind energy company.
Industry support: According to the Xinjiang Wind Power is developing long-term development goals by 2010, Xinjiang's total power installed capacity of wind power installed capacity of the proportion of the total size of more than 5%, in 2020 the scale of delivery of wind power in Xinjiang. Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone Industrial Park started construction of wind power, and actively build the "China Wind Valley" concept. Currently, the gold zone has been formed by wind power wind technology-driven industry clusters, industrial park started construction of wind power, Denmark LM, the Xi Xiang, Xin Feng, Cathay and enterprises and foreign enterprises have entered the industrial park is expected to 2010 output value of the wind power industrial park will reach ten billion yuan.
Fans Order: China to maintain rapid growth of wind power market, the company sufficient orders, not only 1.5MW unit to obtain a large number of orders, 750kW unit is still favored by the market. As of March 31, 2010, the company pending order total 3349.5MW, including the 750kW unit 117MW, 1.5MW unit 3225MW, 2.5MW unit 7.5MW. In addition to these orders, there have been successful but not formally signed the order total 1483.5MW.
Gao Hua Securities to give the company a "buy" rating. Goldwind rating will be raised to buy from neutral, because the stock based on discounted cash flow than our 12-month target price of 20 yuan (unadjusted) there is 24% potential upside. Goldwind China is expected to benefit from strong growth of wind power installed capacity (estimated 2009-2015 CAGR of 27%).
TBEA 85% share of domestic wind turbine
Proposed issuance of new shares: the proposed issuance of not more than 35,000 public shares, issue price of not less than 20 trading days before the prospectus announcement stock price or the previous trading day's price is expected to raise net 3,698,050,000 yuan of funds, intended for high pressure project to improve and export base construction project, the DC converter transformer upgrade the industrial structure transformation projects, special high-voltage AC-DC transformer bushing domestic construction projects, special high-voltage substation National Engineering Laboratory upgrading projects, EHV cables and special construction projects, projects in northern Sudan, Khartoum, Sudan, eastern power grid projects.
Major equipment manufacturing industry leader: It is the core of China's major equipment manufacturing industry key enterprises, have the right to operate foreign economic and technical cooperation projects and state aid qualification, the company has always focused on the "transmission, new energy, new materials," the three areas, is the rare proprietary transformer manufacturing companies, especially high pressure and DC transformer's core technology has reached international standards in the domestic high-end transformer market is a 30% share, 500KV DC converter transformers, 750KV level reactors and other products with domestic monopoly.
A joint venture company, Xinjiang New Energy Co., Ltd. (the company holding 72.95%) is China's largest specialized in solar energy development and utilization of high-tech companies, has an annual output capacity of 4100KW solar applications, completed by the end of 2006 the commissioning of a 20MW project, two, three of the planned production capacity of 50MW and 30MW, the company's annual net profit of 09 - 723,800 yuan; January 2008 investment of 300 million to set up TBEA polysilicon (accounting 75%), the 1,500 tons / year polysilicon projects are under construction (as of late 2009, the progress of the project is 100% capacity of 1500 tons is expected in 2010), shareholder approval in November to increase their investment in the company of $ 300 million capital increase After the company's total investment 600 million yuan of registered capital of 85.71%; December Merchants Bank Trust commissioned the trade does not increase the silicon industry to Xinjiang more than 240 million yuan, 09 August TBEA Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., Xinjiang's first polysilicon ingot furnace trial production successfully.
Wind Concept: Xinjiang New Energy indirect equity participation by the Xinjiang Gold Wind Technology is the largest wind turbine manufacturer, the company registered capital of 32.3 million yuan, with annual output of 200 large-scale wind turbine production capacity of its products made in China 85% market share of fans.
Huatai Securities to give the company "overweight" rating. 2010-2012 is expected, the company net profit was 17.7,21.9,27.8 billion, earnings per share 0.98,1.22,1.54. Maintain "overweight" rating.
Kane shares three highest quarterly increase of 115% pre-
Disclosure in 2010, the Company reported income of 30,173.99 term paper million, an increase of 61.77%, gross margin 39.12%; Battery income 7,279.90 million, an increase of 31.47%, 26.2% gross margin. Second half of 2010, the company will continue to improve product quality, enhance market development, strengthening internal management and control, for the year to achieve better business performance. January-September net profit in 2010 rose 85% -115%, January to September 2009 net profit of 36.0638 million yuan. Net profit growth was mainly due to sales revenue growth, profitability increased.
The company has a monopoly advantage. Currently only two worldwide that series production of electrolytic capacitor paper factory (another Japanese NKK), as the only company, the world's second series of electrolytic capacitor paper manufacturer, electrolytic capacitor in the domestic paper industry is a relatively monopoly and maintain a higher gross margin level, and was awarded the "China Electronics hundred enterprises" one.
Lithium-ion battery: June 2009 held by the Group completed the acquisition of Kane Kane battery 60% of the shares, the purchase price of 73.4685 million yuan; acquisition of Eagle Wu Kane held 16.22% stake in the battery, the price 19.8609 million yuan; acquisition of Wang Chung-wei held by Kay En 2.58% stake in the battery, the price 3.1591 million yuan; holds a total of 78.8%. The assessment predicted, Kane battery in 2010 and 2011 net profit after tax of up to 16,927,100 yuan and 21.9531 million yuan, equity transfer Fang Kaien Group, and Wang Chung-wei Wu eagle were committed, if the net profit of less than previous projections, compensation in cash the company (the controlling shareholder in May 2010 2.566 million yuan compensation paid). Kane battery's main products are high magnification and high rate charge and discharge of nickel-hydrogen batteries and lithium-ion battery, the first half of 2010 net profit of 6,753,300 yuan.
TX Irving expects the company in 2010, 2011 and 2012 EPS was 0.54 yuan, 0.67 yuan and 0.80 yuan, corresponding to July 19, 2010 closing price of 13.35 yuan, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 times, 20 times and 17 times, the company's main business growth quarter by quarter; the same time the competitiveness of our products and further enhance profitability; business receipts and the company has to protect the battery can also become a new profit growth point to maintain the company "overweight" investment rating.
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