New energy industry: copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) thin film of the battery industry
Photovoltaic cells on the development trend of the future: We believe that the low-cost thin film coating characteristics of the battery, the conversion efficiency of rising, the future is bound to be significant growth in market share, thin film battery industry growth will continue to be higher than the industry growth rate of crystalline silicon cells. Judging from the market forecast, three major thin-film battery (amorphous / microcrystalline thin-film battery, CIGS thin-film battery, CdTe thin-film batteries), the future growth of CIGS thin film cells is most evident.
Cost of CIGS thin-film batteries. According to the assumptions we calculated that the full realization of the scale effect under conditions of CIGS thin-film batteries cost $ 1.07 / watt. If the situation in accordance with First Solar's gross margin assumptions made, the CIGS industry than the current price of 1.5 U.S. dollars / watt. Measured by the above assumptions the 10MW thin-film photovoltaic cells power plant, the initial investment cost is $ 4.2 / W, the cost of electricity USD 0.30-0.45 / kWh. If you take into account the effect of thin film battery low light, electricity costs will decline.
CIGS thin-film batteries advantages: 1) low cost thin film cells, compared to the cost of expensive silicon cell materials. 2) compared to other thin film cells, CIGS thin film is promoted by the highest conversion efficiency of the battery, the current lab can reach 19.9% conversion efficiency. 3) no light induced degradation effect. No recession is most concerned about thin film solar cell performance, single-junction amorphous silicon thin film cells decline to 25%, amorphous microcrystalline tandem thin film cells is about 10% decline. CIS thin film battery is not light-induced recession in effect, the same characteristics and the crystalline silicon cells. 4) The most appropriate application of BIPV.
CIGS thin film industry worried about the current battery may present a problem. 1) In the scarcity of raw materials. CIGS thin film cells the current global production capacity of about 300MW, the required amount of consumed In 14 tons, far below the current In the material output. Ongoing replacement of the absorbing layer of material related to research, the future technical issues will be resolved. 2) Cd pollution problems. Cd-free buffer layer technology is the focus of research and development.
Domestic A-share listed companies - Vosges shares (002,083). Vosges PV business, including shares of two subsidiaries, Vosges photovoltaic (CIGSSe cell module production business) and ZF photovoltaic (crystalline silicon cell module packaging operations.)
Vosges JST thin-film photovoltaic cells using the German technology, the first 30MW production line in 2009 is expected to begin pilot production in Q4. 30MW expected second quarter of 2010, an installed output in late 2010. Project planning 240MW, a total investment of 6.0 billion, the first phase of 60MW 1.5 billion, including investment in equipment 111.75 million euros (12 billion yuan). From a technical source, equipment situation, already have success, we wait for its product output.
ZF for crystalline silicon PV battery business production, from the Vosges and ALEO share 50% of the capital was established. The total planning 80MW, completed in three phases, a second phase of 10MW and 40MW have already started production, three 30MW2010 years to complete. Production line in Germany, Switzerland imported automation equipment, packaging components in the field of crystalline silicon cells have the world's best level of automation. Way to expand the initial underwriting market, we look forward to the future development of our own brand. Expected to produce 25MW component 09, the sales income of 500 million yuan.
Investment view: Vosges shares as the earliest in the CIGSSe film battery production enterprises, from the current equipment and technology all have for success. However, due to product not output when the volume of output, after, when the apparent effect of large-scale, thin film batteries to make profit contribution to the company when we can not yet judge.
We believe that the short term, our focus should not be thin-film batteries for the contribution to the company's performance.
The long term, the future needs of high growth PV industry is inevitable, and thin film batteries due to its own unique advantages in the field of photovoltaic proportion will be significantly enhanced. Therefore, we should be concerned about the company's long-term value. China Jianyin Investment Securities Co., Ltd.
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