New energy vehicles investment strategies: the first lithium-powered vehicle
June 1, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Science, the Ministry of Industry, National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a "new energy vehicles to carry out subsidies for private pilot," which determine in Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Hefei, 5 cities Start the private purchase of new vehicles to subsidize pilot energy to show the state's new energy policy to support efforts to increase the car.
Brokerage analysts, lithium chemical companies will directly benefit from the promotion of new energy vehicles, and vehicle probably needs to be further investment in the company to wait for the right time.
Lithium chemical companies benefit
State subsidies of this plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars and passenger cars are basically the use of lithium-ion battery, so that the Changjiang Securities, lithium chemicals, the company's future will benefit.
Changjiang Securities report provided that the electrolyte side, Fluoride is expected to realize lithium hexafluorophosphate localization, to break the Japanese three companies of the product monopoly; electrolyte, take the high-end line of the new chou and Jiangsu Guotai will benefit; positive materials, when the rise of science and technology prospects.
Changjiang Securities, especially recommended for Fluoride. According to reports, Fluoride is the current lithium hexafluorophosphate closest to the industrialization of the company, its products once the market will break the current oligopoly structure, truly lithium hexafluorophosphate localization; in addition to lithium hexafluorophosphate breakthrough in the field, the equity investment projects put into operation, aluminum with a fluoride salt in the dominance of the field will be further strengthened. We expect 2010-2012, Fluoride earnings per share were 1.01,1.51 and 2.03 yuan (which lithium hexafluorophosphate contribution to 0.00,0.16 and 0.61, respectively dollars).
The broker also recommended attention to when the rise of investment opportunities. Report, as the largest, the world's third manufacturer of lithium cathode materials, the company with product quality as Samsung SD I, LG Chemical and other major international supplier of lithium batteries. In 2009, when the rise of science and technology to obtain quality BYD and Sanyo Energy approval, the company expects its sales will increase rapidly. 2010-2012 the company expects earnings per share were 0.78,1.33 and 1.76 yuan.
From a technical point of view, included in the "energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and application of recommended models directory" of the 100 models, with lithium battery-powered about 60, including lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganese oxide proportion about 7:3. The future of lithium battery market will be officially launched on the lithium battery manufacturing industry chain development of enterprise opportunities, focus on a more complete industrial chain with companies such as CITIC Guoan, China Baoan, Shanshangufen, and areas of expertise with technology advantage of the company, such as new chou, Jiangsu Guotai Fosugufen.
Infrastructure-related investment opportunities in stocks has also been seen. Changjiang Securities released a report that this also released a "private purchase of new energy vehicles pilot Interim financial subsidies," said local governments to certain funds, focusing on the charging stations and other infrastructure to support it. At present, subsidies for new energy vehicles in the battery can basically cover the price increase brought about, the biggest bottleneck restricting the universal charging station that is / columns and other infrastructure deficiencies.
Report, "General requirements for electric vehicle charging stations" and for Approval has been submitted to the National Standardization Management Committee, expected to be granted during the year, so the future with the construction of a large number of charging stations around the start, has entered the field equipment suppliers will become the new energy automotive industry chain of the first groups to benefit include: Hidenobu shares, XJ Electric, National Power South, NARI, Auto Motion, Siyuan Electric, Senyuan Electric.
Timing of investment vehicle yet
"We believe that the new energy passenger car industry chain (the current policy emphasis on promoting plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars and passenger cars) overall, 3-5 years, will continue to research and development, road test, the accumulation of the stage of empirical data, and "auto industry and restructuring plan" proposed new energy vehicles in 2012 to reach 5% market share a lot of pressure to achieve the objective (expected to more than 900,000.) electric car industry also need to address several key problem: battery life, infrastructure, automotive battery's durability, which takes time. "from Guoxin Securities, said such reports.
The report said this context, the relevant company's share price driven by "the race and earnings expectations," 3-5 years, mainly by the expected promotion. In the electric vehicle penetration rate of 3-5% before, will remain an ongoing process of large-scale investment and the burn is difficult to realize large profits, then, the market structure will be stabilized, some companies were eliminated, high-quality corporate profit . Long-term investment products to choose from is not easy, as the division of corporate earnings, stock prices will be significantly differentiated.
Minsheng Securities also believes that the notification of new energy vehicles models to benefit less, short sales difficult to break.
The release of the report, the pilot cities to buy plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles subsidies, require the applicant to supplement the auto companies and the new energy automotive products must be included in "energy saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and application of recommended models directory" , the current directory of new energy vehicles, 27 passenger cars recommended species, only 12 kinds of models can get subsidies for new energy vehicles. These models are selling now are limited, and some models not yet listed. Subject to technical and infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in supporting maintenance and charging facilities, subsidized sales of short-term model there is no breakthrough. Therefore, "subsidies for new energy vehicles will help the pilot started the city's new energy auto sales, but short-term subsidies for new energy sources have limited impact on car sales, little effect on the performance of the company."
State Securities, said the new energy automobile companies, including Shanghai Automotive, Chang'an Automobile, Foton Motor, etc., drop by the main business cycle effects in the short term can not be optimistic, optimistic about the long-term worth. Recommended to avoid no substantial results support the concept of blind speculation of new energy vehicles.
But Merchants Securities (HK) that, though the BYD car prices as well as other new energy point of mass production and profitability still need to be patient, but due to the intensity of the basic allowance in line with earlier expectations, so prices will directly benefit from the relevant vehicle .
"For example, we covered the company in shares of BYD (01211. HK), the company's pure electric vehicle E 6 and F 3D M dual-mode electric vehicle will directly benefit from government subsidies. With the company to determine, E 6 present price of about $ 300,000, according to government subsidy standard, E 6 will enjoy up to 60,000 yuan subsidy, then the price will be to 24 million; F 3D M current price of 169,800 yuan, will enjoy the highest subsidies 5 million, the price will drop to 11-12 million, appeal greatly increased. "
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