Start-up period into the lithium battery industry policy
Although the planning of new industries have not been finalized, but the state's new energy policy has been to support the automotive industry came out ahead. Tuesday, just after entering June, the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology to jointly issued a document "on the private purchase of new energy to carry out pilot car allowance," which provides in Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Hefei five pilot cities. Just the past day, the Ministry of Finance, four ministries have jointly issued a circular in 2009, 13 pilot cities in buses, taxis and other areas promoting the use of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, based on the increase in Tianjin, Haikou, Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Suzhou, Tangshan and Guangzhou seven pilot cities, thus saving the public services and new energy vehicle demonstration pilot cities to expand to 20. Industry to accept the "public securities" interview, said it will vigorously promote the development of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles in 2012 will exceed 10 million mark, and its core areas - power lithium battery, will enter the industry, high-speed development period, a group of excellent companies will grow up fast.
Three-year average growth of 50% will
According to "carry out the private purchase of new energy vehicles to subsidize pilot's notice" provisions, the new energy vehicles refers primarily to plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) and pure electric passenger vehicles (BEV), according to 3000 yuan / kwh subsidies , plug-in hybrid maximum subsidy of $ 50,000, up to 60,000 yuan subsidy electric, and hybrid (HEV) is considered energy efficient cars, only one-time subsidy of 3,000 yuan.
"3000 yuan / kwh subsidies, the basic cost of the battery cover, exceeding market expectations." Yesterday, the long-term follow-up study done a lot of depth and intensive study of the electrical equipment industry CRE securities researcher Li Dajun to "public security" analysis that There are three aspects of the subsidies exceed market expectations, this is only one of them.
It is understood that the cost of basic iron phosphate lithium battery in the 3000-5000 yuan / kwh between. BYD less expensive, 3,000 yuan / kwh, Universal Group, an average of 9-10 yuan / AH, equivalent to the price of 3,000 yuan / kwh, Tianjin power of God for the high-end customers, primarily for exports to the U.S., raw materials high cost, battery prices in the 4000-5000 yuan / kwh.
Li Dajun that analysis, the battery capacity in accordance with the present subsidy policy will help accelerate the development of small electric vehicles, new energy vehicles in 2012 will exceed 10 million mark, which can lead battery industry, the market size of 6 billion the next three years the average annual compound growth of more than 50%. This is the second-than-expected.
The third is the trade rumors over the expected maximum in each city will develop 20,000 vehicles, but "notice" there is no clear limit.
Guoxin Securities also recently released a report, recently invited China's new energy venture capital fund investment manager opened a conference to analyze the prospects of new energy industries. Eventually formed the conclusion that, after years of vigorous development, wind energy has three 50 billion market capitalization of listed companies is about to or have been born, more than three or more solar energy over a billion dollars in market value of listed companies, these two sectors for venture capital to that new opportunities have not, however, new energy vehicles in the world within just started, is the initial stage, ideal for venture capital investment is the focus of venture capital investment.
Half the cost will drop in 2012
For the subsidy policy, experts said 863 related projects, the subsidy has three main purposes: First, develop the market, the second is the problem discovery and improvement of the third is to reduce costs. Through subsidies, the Government hopes in 2012, the cost can be decreased by half the battery (now 4-5 yuan / wh, is expected to reduce to 2 yuan / wh less), when the lithium iron phosphate will have a certain amount of market competitiveness, which can be promote new energy vehicles exceeded 10 million units annual output mark.
According to expert estimates, 100 000 new energy vehicles watershed, on the one hand can reduce battery costs by size of business, on the other hand exposure to the new energy automotive batteries, electronic control, motor and other issues favorable to promote industrial development of late.
In addition to the subsidy policy of the Ministry of Finance, the local government will further subsidies. It is reported that local government subsidies in different ways, of which Shanghai intends to waive license fees for new energy vehicles, valued at 3-4 million; Shenzhen individuals or groups to purchase additional subsidies for new energy vehicles, 2 million; Chongqing Free 3-year toll revenue, $ 200 million; Hangzhou Finance in 2010 arranged a $ 20 million energy-saving and new energy vehicles in special funds.
Li Dajun that local government subsidies to enlarge the policy effect, "If the Ministry of Finance of the subsidies can cover the cost of the battery, then the new energy vehicle electronic control more costs (1 million) and motor cost (2 million ), can be completed by the local government subsidies. "
After a series of subsidies, the price of new energy vehicles will be gradually accepted by consumers. Also helping consumers to accept is that the future use of low-cost, because the use of existing petrol vehicles cost about 0.5 yuan / km (100 km average less than 9 liters of oil), while the general use of electric vehicles costs only 0.1 yuan / km (16 to 100 km power calculation), much lower than gasoline vehicles.
In addition to the five pilot cities in the private car allowance policy, buses, taxis and other public services, subsidies to commercial methods of implementation are still under way in 2009, last year's 10 City, 1000 has evolved into twenty city of one thousand - 2009 for the more than 5,000 vehicles in 2010 is expected to quickly reach 2-3 million. Li Dajun that this will also support the battery needs.
Gradual implementation of the concept of lithium
In the A-share market, new energy vehicles and battery concept has been speculation the two, lasted three or four years - which in Tibet Mining (000,762) K line can be clear on the verification, although so far its lithium salt lake resources development in Tibet Zabuye not produce benefits, but the company also private placement to refinance $ 1.5 billion, this heavily in its net assets had reached about 2.5 times.
However, the new energy battery is still a concept is quietly changing the status quo, and the pace of change may be faster than expected. Li Dajun this division for a period of time - 2009 is the "concept" stage, 2010 is "embryonic" stage, and by 2011, will be the battery of "development" stage, more and more people will gradually distinguish traditional lithium batteries and lithium batteries.
Although the 2009 Ni-MH battery and lithium did not decide who will win the entire battery industry have the opportunity, but with the "private pilot subsidies for new energy vehicles," introduction of the policy, the situation will change.
"2010 is the key task of lithium and nickel-metal hydride batteries to separate now, in the battery, the nickel-metal hydride battery basically no chance of development." Li Dajun, said nickel-metal hydride batteries, lead acid battery market share will gradually shrinking, but not death, but the growth rate of lithium batteries will be much more than nickel-metal hydride, lead-acid battery development, "which is currently an important stock-picking ideas."
A-share company needed restructuring battery
Li Dajun said lithium battery safety, consistency, battery life basically solved the problem, the cost will also be gradually decreased. Also, according to experts, the domestic lithium battery research and development level has reached the international advanced level, but in the manufacturing, infrastructure, basic materials firms are still gaps.
Evidently, the field of lithium battery power enterprises are not good in the A-share market, such as production of the battery power of God, BYD, Dongguan, new energy, the production of the North first cathode material, Hunan Ruixiang, Tianjin thinking Portland.
"The domestic production of some high-power lithium battery electrolyte, anode material or can be used, the membrane can not yet." Li Dajun said, it is mainly the demand for new energy vehicles have not really large-scale release of future orders continuous stimulation, will slowly be changed. He gives the A-share listed companies recommended logic is: with the battery-related, technology management is better, the "new energy policy support for larger vehicles, has made clear its long-term development path, gradually nurturing the market needs, but the progress may be over expected to benefit the larger battery, lithium long-term development is the general trend. Recommended: Huafang Textile, Shanshangufen, Jiangsu Guotai, new chou. "
Link one: Huafang Textile: the dark horse of lithium iron phosphate
Huafang Textile (600273), A dark horse shares of lithium battery technology, the size of the lead. Battery is now in full production in 2010 may contribute EPS0.10 yuan. Estimated revenue accounted for 11%, accounting for 27% gross margin.
Battery: fully sold. 7 lithium battery production line design, now a production line in full production; China has sold 50,000 single, mainland China, Taiwan has ordered some products exported to Europe; product quality and comprehensive than the national standard; are mainly used in electric bicycles and other products , high power car battery under development. Profit of 15 million yuan by 2010. Local government and corporate leaders attach great importance to the project, recruiting a large number of top experts in battery technology to accelerate the form of shares.
Electrolyte: design capacity of 5,000 tons, the world's largest production line of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. Installed product line, production line quality to obtain the United States, Japan, South Korea highly recognized, and the possibility of cooperation. Production expected in June, is now the order. Expected profit of 15 million yuan by 2010. CRE
Link II: Jiangsu Guotai: the first electrolyte
Jiangsu Guotai (002,091) subsidiary companies Huarong is the first electrolyte companies, domestic market share of 30% -40%, technology, scale the highest in the country, 150% of capacity expansion, profits will rise rapidly. Electrolyte output 2500 tons in 2008, capacity 2,000 tons, 125% capacity utilization, product demand. Electrolyte in the battery industry chain in the new energy are high-tech sectors, the market is expected to gross profit 40%. 3000 tons project on-line, the company's total capacity of 5,000 tons, the market is expected to become the world's total production capacity of more than Japan's Ube of 3750 tons, South Korea's Samsung's 3410 tons. CRE
Link three: Shanshangufen: chain leading complete battery
Shanshangufen (600,884) the layout of a complete industrial chain, both in the key competitive lithium battery business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, accounting for more than 40%, the first. Once the battery demand the release of scale appear, can greatly improve the company's profitability. Equipment depreciation and the cost of lower margins caused by the company, once the battery market opened, the company exploit the advantages of scale, profitability will be greatly improved. Toda of Japan, Itochu's cooperation in management, technology and markets have a larger space.
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